Bahía de Cádiz

Bahía de Cádiz

by | Oct 3, 2019

Bahía de Cadíz

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Kentish plover (Charadrius alexandrinus), Little stint (Calidris minuta), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Sanderling (Calidris alba)

Environmental issues simulated

Salina abandonment, aquaculture intensification, changing habitat area

Recomendations from modelling

Abandonment of traditional salinas and intensification of aquaculture does not greatly effect shorebird survival as other feeding habitat available.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., le V. dit Durell, S.E.A., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Pérez-Hurtado, A., Castro, M., Estrella, S., Masero, J.A., Rodríguez-Pascual, F.H., Triplet, P., Loquet, N., Desprez, M., Fritz, H., Clausen, P., Ebbinge, B., Norris, K. and Mattison, E., 2005. Coastal bird diversity. Maintaining migratory coastal bird diversity: management through individual-based predictive population modelling, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith Newburgh, Dorset.

Funding

European Commission. Project number: EVK2-2000-00612

Bridgwater Bay

Bridgwater Bay

by | Sep 27, 2019

Bridgwater Bay

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Nuclear power station developing a warm-water outflow affecting food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Warm-water outflow from nunclear power station, by reducing prey abundance, could reduce survival of Red Knot, but other birds were not predicted to be affected.

More information

Garcia, C., Stillman, R. A., Forster, R. & Bremner, J. (2011) Investigations of the links between intertidal macrofauna and their avian predators in Bridgwater Bay with an Individual-Based Model. Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science Report TR161, pp 65.

Funding

EDF, NNB, Genco

Colne Estuary

Colne Estuary

by | Sep 22, 2019

Colne Estuary

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Pacific oyster reef development and removal, changing habitat area and food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Pacific oyster reefs can provide important feeding habitat for shorebirds, especially in sites with lower food availablity in other habitats.

More information

Herbert, R.J.H., Davies, C.J., Bowgen, K.M., Hatton, J. and Stillman, R.A., 2018. The importance of nonnative Pacific oyster reefs as supplementary feeding areas for coastal birds on estuary mudflats. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 28(6): 1294-1307.

Funding

Natural England 

Dungarvan Harbour

Dungarvan Harbour

by | Sep 18, 2019

Dungarvan Harbour

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Sanderling (Calidris alba)

Environmental issues simulated

Effects on birds of habitat loss and disturbance due to oyster cultivation.

Recomendations from modelling

Current extent of oyster cultivation not predicted to be affecting survival of priority bird species. Increases in extent of oyster cultivation likely to push system closer to the point at which a predicted effect on the birds would occur.

More information

Stillman, R. A., Biermann, L. K. & Morris, S. E. (2023) Intertidal oyster cultivation and shorebirds in Dungarvan Harbour: predictions from an individual-based model. BU Global Environmental Solutions report BUG2889 to WS Atkins Ireland Limited. 74 pp.

Funding

WS Atkins Ireland Limited

Exe Estuary

Exe Estuary

by | Sep 18, 2019

Exe Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability, food availability, plus an increase in energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Current shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival, but reduced fishable size or increased daily quota could.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S. and Clarke, R.T., 2000. Predicting mortality in novel environments: tests and sensitivity of a behaviour-based model. Journal of Applied Ecology, 37(4): 564-588.

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., McGrorty, S., Caldow, R.W.G., Norris, K.J., Johnstone, I.G., Ens, B.J., Van Der Meer, J. and Triplet, P., 2001. Predicting shorebird mortality and population size under different regimes of shellfishery management. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38(4): 857-868.

Funding

Commission of the European Communities, Directorate-General for Fisheries and the Natural Environment Research Council

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve up to 8 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Caldow, R.W.G., Triplet, P., le V dit Durell, S.E.A. and McGrorty, S., 2004. When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1536): 233-237.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Dark-bellied brent goose (Branta bernicla bernicla)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation and extreme weather changing habitat area, habitat availability, food availability and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Loss of terrestrial habitat has greater impact on brent goose than loss of intertidal habitat.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., le V dit Durell, S.E.A., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Funding

English Nature

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation, sea-level rise and extreme weather, affecting habitat area and availability, food availability and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Terrestrial habitat loss, sea-level rise and reduced temperature can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V, Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset. Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., le V. dit Durell, S.E.A., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Pérez-Hurtado, A., Castro, M., Estrella, S., Masero, J.A., Rodríguez-Pascual, F.H., Triplet, P., Loquet, N., Desprez, M., Fritz, H., Clausen, P., Ebbinge, B., Norris, K. and Mattison, E., 2005. Coastal bird diversity. Maintaining migratory coastal bird diversity: management through individual-based predictive population modelling. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith Newburgh, Dorset.

Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Price, D.J., 2007. Predicting the effect of local and global environmental change on shorebirds: a case study on the Exe estuary, U.K. Wader Study Group Bulletin, 112: 24-36.

Funding

European Commission, English Nature

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area and availability, plus food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Current mussel biomass sufficient to support Oystercatcher population. Increased mussel lay area and extra food from mussel discards would further benefit Oystercatcher.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D. and Wood, K.A., 2014. Predicting the mussel food requirements of oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary, Bournemouth University / Natural England, Bournemouth / Exeter.

Funding

Natural England. IPENS programme (LIFE11NAT/UK/000384IPENS) which is financially supported by LIFE, a financial instrument of the European Community.

Case Study F

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study G

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishing impacts on oystercatcher can be reduced by harvesting during winter based on recalculations of the requirements of the birds.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Bowgen, K.M. and Stillman, R.A., 2019. Increasing the harvest for mussels Mytilus edulis without harming oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 612: 101-110.

Funding

Bournemouth University

Case Study H

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Causes of Oystercatcher population decline

Recommendations from modelling

Increased prey stealing from Oystercatchers by Carrion Crows (Corvus corone) and Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) could have reduced the foraging success of Oystercatchers sufficiently to have reduced overwinter survival and deterred prospecting immatures from choosing the estuary as their wintering site.

More information

Goss-Custard, J. D., Austin, G. E., Frost, T. M., Sitters, H. P. & Stillman, R. A. (2024) Decline in the numbers of Eurasian Oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus on the Exe estuary Special Protection Area. Ardea, 112, 267-283.

Funding

Bournemouth University