Bridgwater Bay

Bridgwater Bay

by | Sep 27, 2019

Bridgwater Bay

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Nuclear power station developing a warm-water outflow affecting food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Warm-water outflow from nunclear power station, by reducing prey abundance, could reduce survival of Red Knot, but other birds were not predicted to be affected.

More information

Garcia, C., Stillman, R. A., Forster, R. & Bremner, J. (2011) Investigations of the links between intertidal macrofauna and their avian predators in Bridgwater Bay with an Individual-Based Model. Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science Report TR161, pp 65.

Funding

EDF, NNB, Genco

Burry Inlet and Three Rivers

Burry Inlet and Three Rivers

by | Sep 25, 2019

Burry Inlet and Three Rivers

Multi-site model

Burry Inlet, Three Rivers

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve 2-4 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

Stillman, R.A., 2008. Predicting the effect of shellfish stocks on the oystercatcher and knot populations of the Burry Inlet and Three Rivers. Countryside Council for Wales Marine Monitoring Report No. 65, Bournemouth University for the Countryside Council for Wales.

Stillman, R.A., Moore, J.J., Woolmer, A.P., Murphy, M.D., Walkere, P., Vanstaen, K.R., Palmer, D. and Sanderson, W.G., 2010. Assessing waterbird conservation objectives: An example for the Burry Inlet, UK. Biological Conservation, 143(11): 2617-2630.

Funding

Countryside Council for Wales

Humber Estuary

Humber Estuary

by | Sep 16, 2019

Humber Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula)

Environmental issues simulated

Port development and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise and port development can reduce shorebird survival if feeding conditions poor.

More information

Stillman, R. A., West, A. D., Goss-Custard, J. D., McGrorty, S., Frost, N. J., Morrisey, D. J., Kenny, A. J. & Drewitt, A. L. (2005) Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: a case study on the Humber estuary, UK. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 305, 203-217.

Funding

ABP Marine Environmental Research and English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Sanderling (Calidris alba), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Morecambe Bay

Morecambe Bay

by | Sep 8, 2019

Morecambe Bay

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and extreme weather changing habitat area, availability time, food quality and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Reduction in cockle population size potentially reducing Oystercatcher survival.

More information

West, A. and Stillman, R., 2010. A single year study to determine the capacity of Morecambe Bay European marine site to support oystercatcher, using shellfish resource modelling techniques, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth.

Funding

Natural England

Severn Estuary

Severn Estuary

by | Sep 5, 2019

Severn Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Common snipe (Gallinago gallinago), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Tidal power barrage development changing habitat area, availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Tidal barrages which reduce availability of higher quality feeding habitat have greatest impact on number of shorebirds that can be supported.

More information

Bournemouth University, 2010. Severn tidal power – Sea topic paper. Waterbirds. Annex 3 – Waterbird Individual based modelling., Poole, Dorset, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Parsons Brinckerhoff Ltd, Black and Veatch Limited, Department for Energy and Climate Change

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford