Bridgwater Bay

Bridgwater Bay

by | Sep 27, 2019

Bridgwater Bay

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Nuclear power station developing a warm-water outflow affecting food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Warm-water outflow from nunclear power station, by reducing prey abundance, could reduce survival of Red Knot, but other birds were not predicted to be affected.

More information

Garcia, C., Stillman, R. A., Forster, R. & Bremner, J. (2011) Investigations of the links between intertidal macrofauna and their avian predators in Bridgwater Bay with an Individual-Based Model. Centre for Environment, Fisheries & Aquaculture Science Report TR161, pp 65.

Funding

EDF, NNB, Genco

Exe Estuary

Exe Estuary

by | Sep 18, 2019

Exe Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability, food availability, plus an increase in energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Current shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival, but reduced fishable size or increased daily quota could.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S. and Clarke, R.T., 2000. Predicting mortality in novel environments: tests and sensitivity of a behaviour-based model. Journal of Applied Ecology, 37(4): 564-588.

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., McGrorty, S., Caldow, R.W.G., Norris, K.J., Johnstone, I.G., Ens, B.J., Van Der Meer, J. and Triplet, P., 2001. Predicting shorebird mortality and population size under different regimes of shellfishery management. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38(4): 857-868.

Funding

Commission of the European Communities, Directorate-General for Fisheries and the Natural Environment Research Council

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve up to 8 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Caldow, R.W.G., Triplet, P., le V dit Durell, S.E.A. and McGrorty, S., 2004. When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1536): 233-237.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Dark-bellied brent goose (Branta bernicla bernicla)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation and extreme weather changing habitat area, habitat availability, food availability and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Loss of terrestrial habitat has greater impact on brent goose than loss of intertidal habitat.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., le V dit Durell, S.E.A., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Funding

English Nature

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation, sea-level rise and extreme weather, affecting habitat area and availability, food availability and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Terrestrial habitat loss, sea-level rise and reduced temperature can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V, Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset. Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., le V. dit Durell, S.E.A., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Pérez-Hurtado, A., Castro, M., Estrella, S., Masero, J.A., Rodríguez-Pascual, F.H., Triplet, P., Loquet, N., Desprez, M., Fritz, H., Clausen, P., Ebbinge, B., Norris, K. and Mattison, E., 2005. Coastal bird diversity. Maintaining migratory coastal bird diversity: management through individual-based predictive population modelling. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith Newburgh, Dorset.

Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Price, D.J., 2007. Predicting the effect of local and global environmental change on shorebirds: a case study on the Exe estuary, U.K. Wader Study Group Bulletin, 112: 24-36.

Funding

European Commission, English Nature

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area and availability, plus food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Current mussel biomass sufficient to support Oystercatcher population. Increased mussel lay area and extra food from mussel discards would further benefit Oystercatcher.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D. and Wood, K.A., 2014. Predicting the mussel food requirements of oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary, Bournemouth University / Natural England, Bournemouth / Exeter.

Funding

Natural England. IPENS programme (LIFE11NAT/UK/000384IPENS) which is financially supported by LIFE, a financial instrument of the European Community.

Case Study F

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study G

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishing impacts on oystercatcher can be reduced by harvesting during winter based on recalculations of the requirements of the birds.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Bowgen, K.M. and Stillman, R.A., 2019. Increasing the harvest for mussels Mytilus edulis without harming oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 612: 101-110.

Funding

Bournemouth University

Humber Estuary

Humber Estuary

by | Sep 16, 2019

Humber Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula)

Environmental issues simulated

Port development and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise and port development can reduce shorebird survival if feeding conditions poor.

More information

Stillman, R. A., West, A. D., Goss-Custard, J. D., McGrorty, S., Frost, N. J., Morrisey, D. J., Kenny, A. J. & Drewitt, A. L. (2005) Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: a case study on the Humber estuary, UK. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 305, 203-217.

Funding

ABP Marine Environmental Research and English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Sanderling (Calidris alba), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Severn Estuary

Severn Estuary

by | Sep 5, 2019

Severn Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Common snipe (Gallinago gallinago), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Tidal power barrage development changing habitat area, availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Tidal barrages which reduce availability of higher quality feeding habitat have greatest impact on number of shorebirds that can be supported.

More information

Bournemouth University, 2010. Severn tidal power – Sea topic paper. Waterbirds. Annex 3 – Waterbird Individual based modelling., Poole, Dorset, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Parsons Brinckerhoff Ltd, Black and Veatch Limited, Department for Energy and Climate Change

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Southampton Water

Southampton Water

by | Sep 3, 2019

Southampton Water

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Port development and unspecified driver of prey density. Mitigation due to changing habitat area and food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Port development can decrease shorebird survival, but mitigation by creation of a tidal creek can offset this.

More information

Wood, P.J. (2007). Human impacts on coastal bird populations in the Solent. PhD thesis, University of Southampton.

Funding

English Nature, ABP Marine Environmental Research, Beaulieu Estate

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula)

Environmental issues simulated

Human activity from increased housing, affecting habitat area, availability time and energy need

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities, associated with increased housing, can potentially decrease shorebird survival.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Clarke, R.T. & Liley, D. (2012) Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project Phase II: Predicting the impact of human disturbance on overwintering birds in the Solent. Report to the Solent Forum. pp 119.

Funding

Solent Forum

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford