Exe Estuary
Exe Estuary
Case Study A
Bird species included in model
Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)
Environmental issues simulated
Shellfishery management and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability, food availability, plus an increase in energy requirements
Recommendations from modelling
Current shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival, but reduced fishable size or increased daily quota could.
More information
Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S. and Clarke, R.T., 2000. Predicting mortality in novel environments: tests and sensitivity of a behaviour-based model. Journal of Applied Ecology, 37(4): 564-588.
Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., McGrorty, S., Caldow, R.W.G., Norris, K.J., Johnstone, I.G., Ens, B.J., Van Der Meer, J. and Triplet, P., 2001. Predicting shorebird mortality and population size under different regimes of shellfishery management. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38(4): 857-868.
Funding
Commission of the European Communities, Directorate-General for Fisheries and the Natural Environment Research Council
Case Study B
Bird species included in model
Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)
Environmental issues simulated
Shellfishery management changing habitat area
Recommendations from modelling
Shellfishery management needs to reserve up to 8 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.
More information
Goss-Custard, J.D., Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Caldow, R.W.G., Triplet, P., le V dit Durell, S.E.A. and McGrorty, S., 2004. When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1536): 233-237.
Funding
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Case Study C
Bird species included in model
Dark-bellied brent goose (Branta bernicla bernicla)
Environmental issues simulated
Human recreation and extreme weather changing habitat area, habitat availability, food availability and energy requirements
Recommendations from modelling
Loss of terrestrial habitat has greater impact on brent goose than loss of intertidal habitat.
More information
Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., le V dit Durell, S.E.A., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.
Funding
English Nature
Case Study D
Bird species included in model
Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)
Environmental issues simulated
Human recreation, sea-level rise and extreme weather, affecting habitat area and availability, food availability and energy requirements
Recommendations from modelling
Terrestrial habitat loss, sea-level rise and reduced temperature can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.
More information
Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V, Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset. Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., le V. dit Durell, S.E.A., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Pérez-Hurtado, A., Castro, M., Estrella, S., Masero, J.A., Rodríguez-Pascual, F.H., Triplet, P., Loquet, N., Desprez, M., Fritz, H., Clausen, P., Ebbinge, B., Norris, K. and Mattison, E., 2005. Coastal bird diversity. Maintaining migratory coastal bird diversity: management through individual-based predictive population modelling. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith Newburgh, Dorset.
Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Price, D.J., 2007. Predicting the effect of local and global environmental change on shorebirds: a case study on the Exe estuary, U.K. Wader Study Group Bulletin, 112: 24-36.
Funding
European Commission, English Nature
Case Study E
Bird species included in model
Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)
Environmental issues simulated
Shellfishery management changing habitat area and availability, plus food quality
Recommendations from modelling
Current mussel biomass sufficient to support Oystercatcher population. Increased mussel lay area and extra food from mussel discards would further benefit Oystercatcher.
More information
Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D. and Wood, K.A., 2014. Predicting the mussel food requirements of oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary, Bournemouth University / Natural England, Bournemouth / Exeter.
Funding
Natural England. IPENS programme (LIFE11NAT/UK/000384IPENS) which is financially supported by LIFE, a financial instrument of the European Community.
Case Study F
Bird species included in model
Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)
Environmental issues simulated
Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time
Recommendations from modelling
Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.
More information
Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.
Funding
Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford
Case Study G
Bird species included in model
Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)
Environmental issues simulated
Shellfishery management changing food density / quality
Recommendations from modelling
Shellfishing impacts on oystercatcher can be reduced by harvesting during winter based on recalculations of the requirements of the birds.
More information
Goss-Custard, J.D., Bowgen, K.M. and Stillman, R.A., 2019. Increasing the harvest for mussels Mytilus edulis without harming oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 612: 101-110.
Funding
Bournemouth University
Case Study H
Bird species included in model
Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)
Environmental issues simulated
Causes of Oystercatcher population decline
Recommendations from modelling
Increased prey stealing from Oystercatchers by Carrion Crows (Corvus corone) and Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) could have reduced the foraging success of Oystercatchers sufficiently to have reduced overwinter survival and deterred prospecting immatures from choosing the estuary as their wintering site.
More information
Goss-Custard, J. D., Austin, G. E., Frost, T. M., Sitters, H. P. & Stillman, R. A. (2024) Decline in the numbers of Eurasian Oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus on the Exe estuary Special Protection Area. Ardea, 112, 267-283.
Funding
Bournemouth University
