Humber Estuary

Humber Estuary

by | Sep 16, 2019

Humber Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula)

Environmental issues simulated

Port development and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise and port development can reduce shorebird survival if feeding conditions poor.

More information

Stillman, R. A., West, A. D., Goss-Custard, J. D., McGrorty, S., Frost, N. J., Morrisey, D. J., Kenny, A. J. & Drewitt, A. L. (2005) Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: a case study on the Humber estuary, UK. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 305, 203-217.

Funding

ABP Marine Environmental Research and English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Sanderling (Calidris alba), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Poole Harbour

Poole Harbour

by | Sep 7, 2019

Poole Harbour

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified drivers affecting loss of terrestrial habitats and food supply, plus sea-level rise and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability time, food quality and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Terrestrial habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Humphreys, J., 2006. Modelling the effect of environmental change on shorebirds: A case study on Poole Harbour, UK. Biological Conservation, 131(3): 459-473. 

Funding

English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Invasive species changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Presence of non-native shellfish, by providing additional food, can increase Oystercatcher survival.

More information

Caldow, R.W.G., Stillman, R.A., dit Durell, S., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Wood, P.J. and Humphreys, J., 2007. Benefits to shorebirds from invasion of a non-native shellfish. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 274(1616): 1449-1455.

Funding

English Nature

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Avocet (Recurvirostra avosetta)

Environmental issues simulated

Sea-level rise and shoreline change, plus sensitivity tests changing habitat area and availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise can reduce avocet survival, but mitigation by creation of non-tidal lagoon can offset this.

More information

Ross, K.E., 2013. Investigating the physical and ecological drivers of change in a coastal ecosystem: From individual-to population-scale impacts. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver, sea-level rise and regime shifts changing habitat area, habitat availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss, sea-level rise and changes in invertebrate communities (especially loss of larger prey) can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., Stillman, R.A. and Herbert, R.J.H., 2015. Predicting the effect of invertebrate regime shifts on wading birds: Insights from Poole Harbour, UK. Biological Conservation, 186: 60-68.

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival rate.

More information

Clarke, L.J., 2018. Ecosystem impacts of intertidal invertebrate harvesting: from benthic habitats to bird predators. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Bournemouth University, Natural England and Southern Inshore Fisheries and Conservation Authority (SIFCA)

Case Study F

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Human activity, sea-level rise and prey availability, changing habitat area and availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities only reduces shorebird survival if associated with decline in site quality.

More information

Collop, C., 2016. Impact of human disturbance on coastal birds: Population consequences derived from behavioural responses. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

British Association for Shooting and Conservation and Bournemouth University

Severn Estuary

Severn Estuary

by | Sep 5, 2019

Severn Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Common snipe (Gallinago gallinago), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Tidal power barrage development changing habitat area, availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Tidal barrages which reduce availability of higher quality feeding habitat have greatest impact on number of shorebirds that can be supported.

More information

Bournemouth University, 2010. Severn tidal power – Sea topic paper. Waterbirds. Annex 3 – Waterbird Individual based modelling., Poole, Dorset, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Parsons Brinckerhoff Ltd, Black and Veatch Limited, Department for Energy and Climate Change

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Southampton Water

Southampton Water

by | Sep 3, 2019

Southampton Water

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Port development and unspecified driver of prey density. Mitigation due to changing habitat area and food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Port development can decrease shorebird survival, but mitigation by creation of a tidal creek can offset this.

More information

Wood, P.J. (2007). Human impacts on coastal bird populations in the Solent. PhD thesis, University of Southampton.

Funding

English Nature, ABP Marine Environmental Research, Beaulieu Estate

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula)

Environmental issues simulated

Human activity from increased housing, affecting habitat area, availability time and energy need

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities, associated with increased housing, can potentially decrease shorebird survival.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Clarke, R.T. & Liley, D. (2012) Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project Phase II: Predicting the impact of human disturbance on overwintering birds in the Solent. Report to the Solent Forum. pp 119.

Funding

Solent Forum

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Wash

Wash

by | Sep 1, 2019

Wash

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and natural variation changing habitat area, availability time and food density. Mitigation to increase food density and area.

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve up to 8 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Caldow, R.W.G., Triplet, P., le V dit Durell, S.E.A. and McGrorty, S., 2004. When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing. Proceedings. Biological Sciences, 271(1536): 233-237.

Stillman, R. A., West, A. D., Goss-Custard, J. D., Caldow, R. W. G., McGrorty, S., Durell, S. E. A. le V. dit, Yates, M., G., Atkinson, P. W., Clark, N. A., Bell, M. C., Dare, P. J. & Mander, M. (2003) An individual behaviour-based model can predict shorebird mortality using routinely collected shellfishery data. Journal of Applied Ecology, 40, 1090-1101.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Common eider (Somateria mollissima), Common scoter (Melanitta nigra), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area and availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Impact of shellfishing on oystercatcher and eider survival is reduced when alternative food resources are available.

More information

Caldow, R.W.G., Stillman, R.A. and West, A., 2003. Modelling study to determine the capacity of The Wash shellfish stocks to support eider Somateria mollissima, Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Dorset. http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/1589/

Funding

Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Natural England

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation and unspecified drivers changing habitat area, availability and food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Site quality was higher when more large prey species were present. Habitat loss and up to 20 disturbances per hour had relatively little impact on shorebird survival.

More information

West, A. D., Yates, M. G., McGrorty, S. & Stillman, R. A. (2007) Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: a case study on the Wash embayment, UK. Ecological Modelling, 202, 527-539.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Natural England