Colne Estuary

Colne Estuary

Colne Estuary

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Pacific oyster reef development and removal, changing habitat area and food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Pacific oyster reefs can provide important feeding habitat for shorebirds, especially in sites with lower food availablity in other habitats.

More information

Herbert, R.J.H., Davies, C.J., Bowgen, K.M., Hatton, J. and Stillman, R.A., 2018. The importance of nonnative Pacific oyster reefs as supplementary feeding areas for coastal birds on estuary mudflats. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 28(6): 1294-1307.

Funding

Natural England 

Dee Estuary

Dee Estuary

Dee Estuary

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and natural variation changing habitat area and availability time, and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve over 2 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

West, A.D. and McGrorty, S., 2003. Marine monitoring project: Modelling osytercatchers and their food on the Dee Estuary, Traeth Lafan and Burry Inlet Spa to inform target setting and site management, Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Stillman, R.A. and Wood, K.A., 2013. Predicting oystercatcher food requirements on the Dee Estuary. A report to Natural Resources Wales, Bournemouth University, Poole, Dorset.

Funding

Countryside Council for Wales, Environment Agency Wales

Menai Strait

Menai Strait

Menai Straight

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area, availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Moving mussels down the shore as they grow reduces losses to Oystercatcher without decreasing Oystercatcher survival.

More information

West, A.D. and McGrorty, S., 2003. Marine monitoring project: Modelling osytercatchers and their food on the Dee Estuary, Traeth Lafan and Burry Inlet Spa to inform target setting and site management, Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Caldow, R.W.G., Beadman, H.A., McGrorty, S., Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., le V. dit Durell, S.E.A., West, A.D., Kaiser, M.J., Mould, K. and Wilson, A., 2004. A Behavior-Based Modeling Approach to Reducing Shorebird-Shellfish Conflicts. Ecological Applications, 14(5): 1411-1427.

Funding

Environment Research Council LINK Aquaculture award ENVI1. Countryside Council for Wales

Morecambe Bay

Morecambe Bay

Morecambe Bay

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and extreme weather changing habitat area, availability time, food quality and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Reduction in cockle population size potentially reducing Oystercatcher survival.

More information

West, A. and Stillman, R., 2010. A single year study to determine the capacity of Morecambe Bay European marine site to support oystercatcher, using shellfish resource modelling techniques, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth.

Funding

Natural England

Poole Harbour

Poole Harbour

Poole Harbour

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified drivers affecting loss of terrestrial habitats and food supply, plus sea-level rise and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability time, food quality and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Terrestrial habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Humphreys, J., 2006. Modelling the effect of environmental change on shorebirds: A case study on Poole Harbour, UK. Biological Conservation, 131(3): 459-473. 

Funding

English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Invasive species changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Presence of non-native shellfish, by providing additional food, can increase Oystercatcher survival.

More information

Caldow, R.W.G., Stillman, R.A., dit Durell, S., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Wood, P.J. and Humphreys, J., 2007. Benefits to shorebirds from invasion of a non-native shellfish. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 274(1616): 1449-1455.

Funding

English Nature

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Avocet (Recurvirostra avosetta)

Environmental issues simulated

Sea-level rise and shoreline change, plus sensitivity tests changing habitat area and availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise can reduce avocet survival, but mitigation by creation of non-tidal lagoon can offset this.

More information

Ross, K.E., 2013. Investigating the physical and ecological drivers of change in a coastal ecosystem: From individual-to population-scale impacts. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver, sea-level rise and regime shifts changing habitat area, habitat availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss, sea-level rise and changes in invertebrate communities (especially loss of larger prey) can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., Stillman, R.A. and Herbert, R.J.H., 2015. Predicting the effect of invertebrate regime shifts on wading birds: Insights from Poole Harbour, UK. Biological Conservation, 186: 60-68.

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival rate.

More information

Clarke, L.J., 2018. Ecosystem impacts of intertidal invertebrate harvesting: from benthic habitats to bird predators. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Bournemouth University, Natural England and Southern Inshore Fisheries and Conservation Authority (SIFCA)

Case Study F

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Human activity, sea-level rise and prey availability, changing habitat area and availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities only reduces shorebird survival if associated with decline in site quality.

More information

Collop, C., 2016. Impact of human disturbance on coastal birds: Population consequences derived from behavioural responses. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

British Association for Shooting and Conservation and Bournemouth University