Cardiff Bay

Cardiff Bay

by | Sep 23, 2019

Cardiff Bay

Bird species included in model

Common redshank (Tringa totanus)

Environmental issues simulated

Barrage result in a change of habitat area and availability time, and food density / quality. Mitigation through new lagoon.

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss reduces redshank survival, but mitigation by creation of higher shore level habitat of 10% of area lost can offset this.

More information

Goss-Custard, J. D., Burton, N. H. K., Clark, N. A., Ferns, P. N., McGrorty, S., Reading, C. J., Rehfisch, M. M., Stillman, R. A., Townend, I., West, A. D. & Worral, D. H. (2006) Test of a behaviour-based individual-based model: increased winter mortality in a shorebird following habitat loss. Ecological Applications, 16, 2215-2222.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Exe Estuary

Exe Estuary

by | Sep 18, 2019

Exe Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability, food availability, plus an increase in energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Current shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival, but reduced fishable size or increased daily quota could.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S. and Clarke, R.T., 2000. Predicting mortality in novel environments: tests and sensitivity of a behaviour-based model. Journal of Applied Ecology, 37(4): 564-588.

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D., West, A.D., Durell, S.E.A.L.V.D., McGrorty, S., Caldow, R.W.G., Norris, K.J., Johnstone, I.G., Ens, B.J., Van Der Meer, J. and Triplet, P., 2001. Predicting shorebird mortality and population size under different regimes of shellfishery management. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38(4): 857-868.

Funding

Commission of the European Communities, Directorate-General for Fisheries and the Natural Environment Research Council

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve up to 8 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Caldow, R.W.G., Triplet, P., le V dit Durell, S.E.A. and McGrorty, S., 2004. When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing. Proceedings. Biological sciences, 271(1536): 233-237.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Dark-bellied brent goose (Branta bernicla bernicla)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation and extreme weather changing habitat area, habitat availability, food availability and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Loss of terrestrial habitat has greater impact on brent goose than loss of intertidal habitat.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., le V dit Durell, S.E.A., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Funding

English Nature

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation, sea-level rise and extreme weather, affecting habitat area and availability, food availability and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Terrestrial habitat loss, sea-level rise and reduced temperature can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V, Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset. Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., le V. dit Durell, S.E.A., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Pérez-Hurtado, A., Castro, M., Estrella, S., Masero, J.A., Rodríguez-Pascual, F.H., Triplet, P., Loquet, N., Desprez, M., Fritz, H., Clausen, P., Ebbinge, B., Norris, K. and Mattison, E., 2005. Coastal bird diversity. Maintaining migratory coastal bird diversity: management through individual-based predictive population modelling. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Winfrith Newburgh, Dorset.

Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Price, D.J., 2007. Predicting the effect of local and global environmental change on shorebirds: a case study on the Exe estuary, U.K. Wader Study Group Bulletin, 112: 24-36.

Funding

European Commission, English Nature

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area and availability, plus food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Current mussel biomass sufficient to support Oystercatcher population. Increased mussel lay area and extra food from mussel discards would further benefit Oystercatcher.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Goss-Custard, J.D. and Wood, K.A., 2014. Predicting the mussel food requirements of oystercatchers in the Exe Estuary, Bournemouth University / Natural England, Bournemouth / Exeter.

Funding

Natural England. IPENS programme (LIFE11NAT/UK/000384IPENS) which is financially supported by LIFE, a financial instrument of the European Community.

Case Study F

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study G

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishing impacts on oystercatcher can be reduced by harvesting during winter based on recalculations of the requirements of the birds.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Bowgen, K.M. and Stillman, R.A., 2019. Increasing the harvest for mussels Mytilus edulis without harming oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 612: 101-110.

Funding

Bournemouth University

Humboldt Bay

Humboldt Bay

by | Sep 15, 2019

Humboldt Bay

Bird species included in model

Black brant (Branta bernicula nigricans)

Environmental issues simulated

Natural variation, sea-level rise / sediment change and recreation changing habitat area, habitat availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities or reduced food supply reduce emigration of black brant.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Wood, K. A., Gilkerson, W., Elkinton, E., Black, J. M., Ward, D. H. and Petrie, M. (2015) Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore. Ecosphere, 6(7), 114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00455.1.

Funding

Ducks Unlimited, Inc., funded this study (Project US-RS-14-2)

Izembek Lagoon

Izembek Lagoon

by | Sep 14, 2019

Izembek Lagoon

Bird species included in model

Black brant (Branta bernicula nigricans), Taverner’s cackling goose (Branta hutchinsii taverneri)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation, hunting, predator numbers, ice and extreme weather changing habitat area, habitat availability time, food availability and energy needs and requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss, disturbance colder weather have greater impact on black brant geese when eelgrass food biomass is lower.

More information

Paper in review

Funding

United States Geological Survey

Liverpool Bay

Liverpool Bay

by | Sep 11, 2019

Liverpool Bay

Bird species included in model

Common scoter (Melanitta nigra)

Environmental issues simulated

Offshore windfarm development changing habitat area

Recommendations from modelling

Windfarm development in relatively shallow food-rich areas can reduce Common Scoter survival.

More information

Kaiser, M.J., Elliott, A., Galanidi, M., Rees, E.I.S., Caldow, R., Stillman, R., Sutherland, W. and Showler, D., 2005. Predicting the displacement of common scoter Melanitta nigra from benthic feeding areas due to offshore windfarms, University of Wales, Bangor, Wales.

Funding

COWRIE under BEN-03-2002. Additional funding from Countryside Council for Wales, English Nature, The Crown Estate, BHP and developers of offshore windfarms in Liverpool Bay.