Liverpool Bay

Liverpool Bay

by | Sep 11, 2019

Liverpool Bay

Bird species included in model

Common scoter (Melanitta nigra)

Environmental issues simulated

Offshore windfarm development changing habitat area

Recommendations from modelling

Windfarm development in relatively shallow food-rich areas can reduce Common Scoter survival.

More information

Kaiser, M.J., Elliott, A., Galanidi, M., Rees, E.I.S., Caldow, R., Stillman, R., Sutherland, W. and Showler, D., 2005. Predicting the displacement of common scoter Melanitta nigra from benthic feeding areas due to offshore windfarms, University of Wales, Bangor, Wales.

Funding

COWRIE under BEN-03-2002. Additional funding from Countryside Council for Wales, English Nature, The Crown Estate, BHP and developers of offshore windfarms in Liverpool Bay.

Martin Mere

Martin Mere

by | Sep 10, 2019

Martin Mere

Bird species included in model

Pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus)

Environmental issues simulated

Land use change and human iteration via disturbance affecting habitat area and availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and disturbance impact on pink-footed goose survival depends on proportion of habitat that is exploitable.

More information

Bournemouth University and Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust, 2018. Wildfowl functionally linked land. ECM_48346. Individual based modelling approach, Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire.

Funding

Natural England

Morecambe Bay

Morecambe Bay

by | Sep 8, 2019

Morecambe Bay

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and extreme weather changing habitat area, availability time, food quality and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Reduction in cockle population size potentially reducing Oystercatcher survival.

More information

West, A. and Stillman, R., 2010. A single year study to determine the capacity of Morecambe Bay European marine site to support oystercatcher, using shellfish resource modelling techniques, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth.

Funding

Natural England

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfish food requirements of oystercatchers

Recommendations from modelling

More cockle and mussel food needs to be available when temperature is lower as the birds need to expend additional energy to maintain their body temperature and the rate at which they can consume food from terrestrial habitats can be reduced.

More information

Stillman, R. A., Goss-Custard, J. D. & Morris, S. E (in press) Assessing the shellfish food requirements of oystercatcher in Morecambe Bay. Natural England Report. 77pp.

Funding

Natural England

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfish food requirements of red knot

Recommendations from modelling

The food supply of red knot included in the model, derived from intertidal invertebrate surveys, underestimates the amount of food available to the birds in the real system.

More information

Stillman, R. A., Goss-Custard, J. D. & Morris, S. E (in press) Assessing the shellfish food requirements of knot in Morecambe Bay. Natural England Report. 102 pp.

Funding

Natural England

Norfolk

Norfolk

by | Sep 7, 2019

Norfolk

Bird species included in model

Pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus)

Environmental issues simulated

Interactions between geese and agriculture

Recommendations from modelling

The continued presence of stubble and sugar beet important for supporting the number of birds wintering in the region. The proportion of time spent feeding on sugar beet could be reduced either by disturbance to birds on sugar beet or by the provision of a supplementary sugar beet resource close to the roost. To significantly reduce the proportion of time spent on sugar beet, disturbance would increase the overall time birds needed to feed above that expected, whereas supplementary sugar beet reduced the overall time birds spent feeding.

More information

Stillman, R. A. & Morris, S. E. (in press) Pink-footed geese in North Norfolk: predictions from an individual-based model. BU Global Environmental Solutions report BUG2937 to Natural England.

Funding

Natural England

Poole Harbour

Poole Harbour

by | Sep 7, 2019

Poole Harbour

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified drivers affecting loss of terrestrial habitats and food supply, plus sea-level rise and extreme weather, changing habitat area and availability time, food quality and energy requirements

Recommendations from modelling

Terrestrial habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., dit Durell, S.E.A.V., Caldow, W.R.G., McGrorty, S., Yates, M.G., Garbutt, R.A., Yates, T.J., Rispin, W.E. and Frost, N.J., 2005. Estuary Special Protection Areas – Establishing baseline targets for shorebirds, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Dorchester, Dorset.

Durell, S.E.A.L.V.d., Stillman, R.A., Caldow, R.W.G., McGrorty, S., West, A.D. and Humphreys, J., 2006. Modelling the effect of environmental change on shorebirds: A case study on Poole Harbour, UK. Biological Conservation, 131(3): 459-473. 

Funding

English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Invasive species changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Presence of non-native shellfish, by providing additional food, can increase Oystercatcher survival.

More information

Caldow, R.W.G., Stillman, R.A., dit Durell, S., West, A.D., McGrorty, S., Goss-Custard, J.D., Wood, P.J. and Humphreys, J., 2007. Benefits to shorebirds from invasion of a non-native shellfish. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 274(1616): 1449-1455.

Funding

English Nature

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Avocet (Recurvirostra avosetta)

Environmental issues simulated

Sea-level rise and shoreline change, plus sensitivity tests changing habitat area and availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise can reduce avocet survival, but mitigation by creation of non-tidal lagoon can offset this.

More information

Ross, K.E., 2013. Investigating the physical and ecological drivers of change in a coastal ecosystem: From individual-to population-scale impacts. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver, sea-level rise and regime shifts changing habitat area, habitat availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss, sea-level rise and changes in invertebrate communities (especially loss of larger prey) can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., Stillman, R.A. and Herbert, R.J.H., 2015. Predicting the effect of invertebrate regime shifts on wading birds: Insights from Poole Harbour, UK. Biological Conservation, 186: 60-68.

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing food density / quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased shellfishing intensity does not reduce Oystercatcher survival rate.

More information

Clarke, L.J., 2018. Ecosystem impacts of intertidal invertebrate harvesting: from benthic habitats to bird predators. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Bournemouth University, Natural England and Southern Inshore Fisheries and Conservation Authority (SIFCA)

Case Study F

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola)

Environmental issues simulated

Human activity, sea-level rise and prey availability, changing habitat area and availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities only reduces shorebird survival if associated with decline in site quality.

More information

Collop, C., 2016. Impact of human disturbance on coastal birds: Population consequences derived from behavioural responses. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University.

Funding

British Association for Shooting and Conservation and Bournemouth University