Denmark to Svalbard

Denmark to Svalbard

by | Sep 20, 2019

Denmark to Svalbard

Multi-site model

Denmark, Mid Norway, North Norway, Svalbard

Bird species included in model

Pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus)

Environmental issues simulated

Factors associated with timing of migration.

Recommendations from modelling

Pink-footed geese track plant growth during northward migration.

More information

Duriez, O., Bauer, S., Destin, A., Madsen, J., Nolet, B.A., Stillman, R.A. and Klaassen, M., 2009. What decision rules might pink-footed geese use to depart on migration? An individual-based model. Behavioral Ecology, 20(3): 560-569.

Funding

Marie-Curie Intra-European Fellowship within the 6th European Community Framework Programme

Doñana

Doñana

by | Sep 19, 2019

Doñana

Bird species included in model

Glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus)

Environmental issues simulated

Rice paddy management, including drought conditions, changing food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Current rice field area does not limit Glossy Ibis population growth, but an over 80% decrease would.

More information

Toral, G. M., Stillman, R. A., Santoro, S., Figuerola, J. (2012) The importance of rice fields for Glossy Ibis (Plegadis falcinellus): management recommendations derived from an individual-based model. Biological Conservation, 148, 19-27.

Funding

Regional Government of Andalusia (Junta de Andalucía) via project Las aves acuáticas de Doñana y el cultivo del arroz: la interacción entre la agricultura y la conservación de las zonas húmedas and by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation via project CGL2006-02247/BOS. Gregorio M. Toral funded by an I3P-CSIC grant for the formation of researchers.

Fehmarn Belt

Fehmarn Belt

by | Sep 17, 2019

Fehmarn Belt

Bird species included in model

Common eider (Somateria mollissima)

Environmental issues simulated

Tunnel construction, changing habitat area and food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Immersed tunnel construction, through disturbance and reduced food avaialbility, can reduce Common Eider survival.

More information

FEBI, 2013a. Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link EIA. Bird Investigations in Fehmarnbelt – Baseline. Volume II. Waterbirds in Fehmarnbelt. Report No. E3TR0011, DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark. https://vvmdocumentation.femern.com/26.%20E3TR0011%20Vol%20II789b.pdf?filename=files/BR/26.%20E3TR0011%20Vol%20II.pdf

FEBI, 2013b. Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link Bird Services (FEBI). Fauna and Flora – Birds – Impact Assessment. Birds of the Fehmarnbelt Area. E3TR0015, DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark. https://vvmdocumentation.femern.com/25.%20E3TR0015%20Vol%20I8099.pdf?filename=files/BR/25.%20E3TR0015%20Vol%20I.pdf

Funding

DHI / BioConsult SH Consortium in association with University of Copenhagen and BIOLA. European Union Trans-European Transport Network

Humber Estuary

Humber Estuary

by | Sep 16, 2019

Humber Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula)

Environmental issues simulated

Port development and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Sea-level rise and port development can reduce shorebird survival if feeding conditions poor.

More information

Stillman, R. A., West, A. D., Goss-Custard, J. D., McGrorty, S., Frost, N. J., Morrisey, D. J., Kenny, A. J. & Drewitt, A. L. (2005) Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: a case study on the Humber estuary, UK. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 305, 203-217.

Funding

ABP Marine Environmental Research and English Nature

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Sanderling (Calidris alba), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Humboldt Bay

Humboldt Bay

by | Sep 15, 2019

Humboldt Bay

Bird species included in model

Black brant (Branta bernicula nigricans)

Environmental issues simulated

Natural variation, sea-level rise / sediment change and recreation changing habitat area, habitat availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Increased disturbance from human activities or reduced food supply reduce emigration of black brant.

More information

Stillman, R.A., Wood, K. A., Gilkerson, W., Elkinton, E., Black, J. M., Ward, D. H. and Petrie, M. (2015) Predicting effects of environmental change on a migratory herbivore. Ecosphere, 6(7), 114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00455.1.

Funding

Ducks Unlimited, Inc., funded this study (Project US-RS-14-2)