Severn Estuary

Severn Estuary

by | Sep 5, 2019

Severn Estuary

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Common snipe (Gallinago gallinago), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Tidal power barrage development changing habitat area, availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Tidal barrages which reduce availability of higher quality feeding habitat have greatest impact on number of shorebirds that can be supported.

More information

Bournemouth University, 2010. Severn tidal power – Sea topic paper. Waterbirds. Annex 3 – Waterbird Individual based modelling., Poole, Dorset, Bournemouth University.

Funding

Parsons Brinckerhoff Ltd, Black and Veatch Limited, Department for Energy and Climate Change

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus), Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula), Turnstone (Arenaria interpres)

Environmental issues simulated

Unspecified driver and sea-level rise changing habitat area and habitat availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Habitat loss and sea-level rise can reduce shorebird survival, but effects vary between species.

More information

Bowgen, K.M., 2016. Predicting the effect of environmental change on wading birds: insights from individual-based models. PhD thesis, Bournemouth University in collaboration with HR Wallingford.

Funding

Bournemouth University and HR Wallingford

Solway Firth

Solway Firth

by | Sep 4, 2019

Solway Firth

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area, availability time and food quality

Recommendations from modelling

Impact of shellfishing on oystercatcher survival reduced if alternative upshore food is available.

More information

Stillman, R., 2008. Predicted effect of shellfishing on the oystercatcher and knot populations of the Solway Firth, Bournemouth University, Poole, Dorset.

Stillman, R.A. and Wood, K.A., 2013. Predicting food requirements of overwintering shorebird populations on the Solway Firth. A report to Scottish Natural Heritage and Marine Scotland, Bournemouth University, Poole, Dorset.

Funding

Solway Shellfish Management Association. Scottish Natural Heritage. Marine Scotland.

Wash

Wash

by | Sep 1, 2019

Wash

Case Study A

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management and natural variation changing habitat area, availability time and food density. Mitigation to increase food density and area.

Recommendations from modelling

Shellfishery management needs to reserve up to 8 times more shellfish biomass than consumed by Oystercatcher populations.

More information

Goss-Custard, J.D., Stillman, R.A., West, A.D., Caldow, R.W.G., Triplet, P., le V dit Durell, S.E.A. and McGrorty, S., 2004. When enough is not enough: shorebirds and shellfishing. Proceedings. Biological Sciences, 271(1536): 233-237.

Stillman, R. A., West, A. D., Goss-Custard, J. D., Caldow, R. W. G., McGrorty, S., Durell, S. E. A. le V. dit, Yates, M., G., Atkinson, P. W., Clark, N. A., Bell, M. C., Dare, P. J. & Mander, M. (2003) An individual behaviour-based model can predict shorebird mortality using routinely collected shellfishery data. Journal of Applied Ecology, 40, 1090-1101.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Case Study B

Bird species included in model

Common eider (Somateria mollissima), Common scoter (Melanitta nigra), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfishery management changing habitat area and availability time

Recommendations from modelling

Impact of shellfishing on oystercatcher and eider survival is reduced when alternative food resources are available.

More information

Caldow, R.W.G., Stillman, R.A. and West, A., 2003. Modelling study to determine the capacity of The Wash shellfish stocks to support eider Somateria mollissima, Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Dorset. http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/1589/

Funding

Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Natural England

Case Study C

Bird species included in model

Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica), Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), Common redshank (Tringa totanus), Dunlin (Calidris alpina), Eurasian curlew (Numenius arquata), Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola), Red knot (Calidris canutus)

Environmental issues simulated

Human recreation and unspecified drivers changing habitat area, availability and food availability

Recommendations from modelling

Site quality was higher when more large prey species were present. Habitat loss and up to 20 disturbances per hour had relatively little impact on shorebird survival.

More information

West, A. D., Yates, M. G., McGrorty, S. & Stillman, R. A. (2007) Predicting site quality for shorebird communities: a case study on the Wash embayment, UK. Ecological Modelling, 202, 527-539.

Funding

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Natural England

Case Study D

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfish food requirements of oystercatchers

Recommendations from modelling

To maintain high oystercatcher survival rates, more than 40 kg ash-free mass of cockle and mussel biomass needs to be available to the birds at the start of the overwintering period.

More information

Stillman, R. A., Biermann, L. K. and Goss-Custard, J. D. (2021) Assessing oystercatcher shellfish food requirements in The Wash. BU Global Environmental Solutions report BUG2883 to Natural England. 107 pp.

Case Study E

Bird species included in model

Eurasian oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus)

Environmental issues simulated

Shellfish food requirements of oystercatchers

Recommendations from modelling

To maintain high oystercatcher survival rates, more than 40 kg ash-free mass of cockle and mussel biomass needs to be available to the birds at the start of the overwintering period.

More information

Bowgen, K. M., Stillman, R. A., Jessop, R., Atkinson, P. W. & Robinson, R. A. (in press) Assessing oystercatcher shellfish food requirements in The Wash using the Wash bird food model: an update for 2021-2023 including scenario testing of cockle stock management. 124 pp.

Funding

Natural England